Thursday, 13 August 2015



Worcester Local Elections 2015

I'm a Worcester resident. Here are the local and GE results for the city. Having the two sets of elections on the same day allows for some interesting comparisons.

Arboretum  Con 910 (29.5%)   Lab 1,209 (39.5%)   UKIP 324 (10.5%)   Green 640 (21%)
No election 2010-near city centre seat with significant number of terraced houses.

Bedwardine  Con 2,197 (-84) 46.5% (50.5%)   Lab 1,190 (-228) 25% (31.3%)   UKIP 746 (+746) 16%  Green 254 (-244) 5% (11%)   LD 261 (+261) 5.5%   TUSC 52 (+52) 1%   BNP 23 (-300) 0.5%
Retention rate: 96.4% (Lab 84%)
Suburban seat in St. John's with an older demographic.

Cathedral  Con 1,899 (+ 360) 39% (35%)   Lab 1,760 (+ 608) 36% (26%)  UKIP 537 (+537) 12%   Green 652 (-102) 17.4%   BNP 19 (+19)   [Lib Dem -1,023; representing 23% of the vote in 2010]
Retention rate: 124% (Lab 153%)
No Lib Dem candidate (took 1000+ votes 5 years ago). A city centre very mixed seat with marina apartments, terraced housing, two small elements of social housing, a Georgian square and city centre flats and almshouses  with neatly 10% BME's. A wafer thin key marginal since 2010.

Claines  Con 2,115 (+195) 42.3% (39%)   Lab 886 (+170) 18% (14.5%)   UKIP 558 (+558) 11%    Lib Dem 1,056 (-1,009) 21% (41.4%)   Green 394 (+131) 8% (5%)
Retention rate: 110% (LD 51.5%)
A high income suburban ward which used to have 3 Lib-Dem councillors and still has a LD county councillor.

Nunnery Con 1,252 (-142) 32% (35%)   Lab 1,627 (-134) 41% (44%)   UKIP 737 (+737) 19% Green 253 (-203) 6.4% (11.5%)   BNP 40 (-328) 1% (9%)
Retention rate: 90% (Lab 92%)
High UKIP vote (first time they put up a candidate) with BNP vote collapse. Large social housing estate plus private housing.

St. Clement Con 1,338 (46.5%)   Lab 869 (30%)   UKIP 445 (15.5%)   Green 221 (7%)
Mixed property type seat in St. John's (westside).

St.John Con 1,139 (-58) 30.5% (33%)   Lab 1,683 (+ 24) 45% (45.7%)   UKIP 592 (+592) 16%   Green 266 (-142) 7% (11%)   BNP 16 (-349) 0.5% (10%)
Retention rate: 95% (Lab 101%)
Large social housing estate plus some private housing.

St.Stephen  Con 1,115 (38%)   Lab 376 (13%)   UKIP 307 (10.5%)   Green 1,023 (35%)   Indep. 54 (2%)
An eastside seat similar to St. Clement but with 1 Green councillor. The Greens have been running an effective 'pavement politics' campaign for a number of years.

St.Peter  Con 2,022 (+178) 60% (56%)   Lab 731 (-209) 22% (28.5%)   UKIP 368 (+368) 11%    Green 214 (-184) 8% (12%)
Retention rate: 109.5% (Lab 78%)
Modern (less than 20 years old) housing type suburban seat held by the present mayor (individually a very popular figure). 

Warndon Parish North  Con 1,596 (-26) 54% (57.5%)   Lab 689 (-216) 23.5% (32%)   UKIP 430 (+430) 14.5%   Green 221 (-171) 7.5% (14%)
Retention rate: 98% (Lab 76%) Modern private housing estate (looks very much like Warndon Parish South but with a few more starter homes & a very small amount of social housing.

Warndon Parish South  Con 1,659 (-28) 54% (57%)   Lab 776 (-45) 25% (27.7%)   UKIP 401 (+401) 13%   Green 219 (-129) 7% (12%)
Retention rate: 98% (Lab 94.5%)
Modern private housing estate with highest household income in Worcester.
* Comparisons are with 2010 [when there were no UKIP council candidates].

The UKIP (non) effect  In the County Council elections two years ago UKIP was achieving 22-25% in a number of Conservative held areas (high of 28% in Warndon Parish) and gained 25% in Bedwardine in successive local elections. It hurt Cons badly in Cathedral. There is no evidence that UKIP harmed Cons this year and some evidence that it drew support disproportionately from Labour voters (although there were no local elections in the core Lab wards of Gorse Hill, Rainbow Hill and Warndon).

This suggests that the voters for UKIP are not the same electorate each year. In the forced national choice many Conservative-inclined voters came back to Con, but next year there will not be that pressure when there are local elections alone.
UKIP votes: Arboretum-10.5%, Bedwardine-16%, Cathedral-12%, Claines-11%, Nunnery-19%, St. Clement-15.5%, St. John-16%, St. Stephen-10.5%, St. Peter-11%, WPN-14.5%, WPS-13%
Regarding the campaign as a whole it is clear that, in contrast to previous years, holding the GE and locals together benefitted the Conservative (and nationally Cons gained 550 council seats). 

City Totals (no elections in 3 Lab & 1 Con seats) Con: 17,143 (43%) Lab: 11,686 (29%) UKIP 5,445 (13.7%) LD 1,317 (3%) Green 4,357 (10.7%)

National GE Totals (city-wide) Con: 22,534 (45.3%) Lab 16,888 (34%) UKIP 6,378 (12.8%) Green 2,024 (4%) LD 1,677 (3.4%)

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